Frame a valid modeling task
Define the prediction unit, target, observation time, prediction time, population, decision, error costs, baseline, and success metric.
Codex Skills for Data Science give Codex structured instructions for framing prediction problems, exploring data, preventing leakage, building preprocessing pipelines, comparing models, evaluating errors, documenting experiments, and preparing reproducible outputs. Download the skills for projects where a model must answer a real question, not just produce a score.
task: predict customer retention
inspect:
- target definition
- split strategy
- leakage risk
verify: baseline + metrics + error analysisModeling mistakes often begin before training. A vague target, future information in features, an unrepresentative split, class imbalance, or a convenient metric can make results look stronger than they are.
These skills guide Codex through exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, machine learning pipelines, cross-validation, model comparison, interpretation, and reproducible reporting with assumptions kept visible.
Define the prediction unit, target, observation time, prediction time, population, decision, error costs, baseline, and success metric.
Split data appropriately, fit preprocessing only on training data, handle missing values, encode features, and keep transformations reproducible.
Establish simple baselines, use suitable cross-validation, tune within the validation process, report multiple relevant metrics, and retain the untouched test set.
Analyze performance by segment, inspect false positives and negatives, test sensitivity, document drift risks, and state where the model should not be used.
The process prevents test-set knowledge from leaking into feature choices, preprocessing, or tuning.
Define who or what is predicted, at what time, over which horizon, using which available information, and why the output is useful.
Check quality, missingness, duplicates, temporal order, groups, imbalance, sensitive attributes, leakage, and representative train-validation-test separation.
Start with a simple reference, create repeatable preprocessing, compare justified algorithms, tune carefully, and track every experiment.
Review calibration, thresholds, segment performance, stability, error costs, interpretability, limitations, and reproducibility before recommending use.
A notebook exploration and a production prediction service need different levels of control.
Understand the dataset, test feasibility, identify signal, establish baselines, visualize errors, and define the next experiment.
Build pipelines, compare estimators, cross-validate, tune, track results, and preserve an honest final evaluation.
Prepare text or other unstructured inputs, define representations, manage splits, evaluate tasks, and inspect qualitative errors.
Package preprocessing and inference together, define input contracts, test serialization, plan monitoring, and document retraining triggers.
The workflow supports classification, regression, clustering, ranking, forecasting, and other tasks when their assumptions are stated.
These skills are for practitioners who need results that can be reproduced, challenged, and connected to a real decision.
Structure experiments, prevent leakage, compare models fairly, interpret errors, and document limitations.
Turn validated experiments into testable pipelines, model artifacts, input contracts, and monitored inference systems.
Keep data preparation, hypotheses, evaluation design, metrics, experiments, and conclusions transparent.
Clarify whether prediction is useful, choose business-relevant metrics, understand error costs, and evaluate deployment readiness.
The skills cannot make biased or unrepresentative data suitable, and model performance does not establish causation. High-impact uses require domain review, fairness and privacy assessment, security, monitoring, and qualified approval.
Install the skills where Codex can access data documentation, notebooks, pipeline code, environments, experiments, and reporting rules.
Keep SKILL.md with its framing, leakage, experiment, evaluation, and reporting guidance.
Use project scope for one dataset and target, or personal scope for a reusable modeling process.
Record population, target, observation window, prediction time, horizon, decision, error costs, sensitive attributes, and prohibited uses.
Add schemas, source dates, access rules, approved libraries, compute limits, random seed policy, tracking method, and output formats.
Define the split strategy, baseline, metrics, segments, final test procedure, and acceptance criteria before model selection.
Answers about algorithms, leakage, cross-validation, notebooks, and production use.
They can compare justified candidates against a baseline using appropriate validation. The best choice also depends on error costs, interpretability, latency, maintenance, and deployment constraints.
The workflow fixes observation and prediction times, audits feature availability, separates data before learned preprocessing, and uses pipelines within cross-validation.
They can support deep learning when the environment and task justify it, but still require baselines, valid splits, controlled experiments, error analysis, and reproducibility.
They can separate exploration from reusable preprocessing, training, evaluation, serialization, and inference modules, then add tests and input contracts.
Not automatically. Deployment needs data and concept drift monitoring, privacy and fairness review, security, rollback, ownership, and domain-specific validation.
Defined target. Leakage-safe pipeline. Honest comparison. Limits stated before deployment.